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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Thursday, 08 April 10
INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTRY SEEKS LONGER MINING CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTAGLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Energy Minister Darwin Zahedy Saleh said he would seek to amend the mining law to address investors’ complain ...
Thursday, 08 April 10
NAPOCOR GETS ONE OFFER AT COAL TENDER - ABS CBN
ABS- CBN News reported that, Philippine power producer National Power Corp. (Napocor) is likely to buy 50,000 tons of steam coal from PT Berau Coal ...
Wednesday, 07 April 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION
The dry bulk market has kept a low profile during the past week, as evidenced by the small changes of a usually rather turbulent Baltic Dry Index (B ...
Tuesday, 06 April 10
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS RISE 24%, SHIP QUEUE SHORTENS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Coal shipments from Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel used in power st ...
Tuesday, 06 April 10
UAE STEEL TRADERS FEAR LOSSES ON GLOBAL HIKE
A sudden spurt in the price of iron ore in the international market has caught local steel traders and manufacturers and a host of other steel-depen ...
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Showing 5896 to 5900 news of total 6871 |
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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