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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Monday, 12 April 10
INDIA'S NALCO TO INVEST BIG IN INDONESIA'S ALUMINIUM PROJECT - BERNAMA
Bernama reported that, India's state- owned National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco) is to pump in massive investment to set up a aluminium smelter a ...
Saturday, 10 April 10
VESSELS OPEN N. CHINA WERE SEEN FIXED AT HIGH TEENS FOR TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The BDI indices was almost at same levels was down by only 2.6 pct.
The cape index was down by almost 13 pct, which appears to be s ...
Saturday, 10 April 10
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT GROWS BY ALMOST 100% IN ITS SECOND YEAR OF OPERATIONS
COALspot.com ( Press Release): It has been a year of setting numerous records for Krishnapatnam Port. Krishnapatnam Port is only in its second year ...
Saturday, 10 April 10
TRANS-ASIA SEEKS SEMIRARA, INDO SUPPLIERS FOR COAL POWER PLANT - MANILA STANDARD TODAY
Manila Standard Today reported that, Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development Corp., a unit of the Phinma Group, will tap Semirara Mining Corp. ...
Thursday, 08 April 10
THE FAR EAST SHIPPING MARKET FIRMING SINCE THE LAST WEEK
Handy
Little fresh interest early this week after the holidays. The BSI saw yest ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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