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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Friday, 16 April 10
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT IS IRONING ITS WAY INTO RECORD BOOKS
COALspot.com: Krishnapatnam Port achieved a new benchmark by loading 60,021 MT of Iron Ore fines in just 24 hrs surpassing its previous record of 54 ...
Friday, 16 April 10
RBCT COAL DISPUTE RESOLVED - MININGMX
Miningmx reported that, the long-simmering spat over the coal allocation for producers who will use the expanded facilities at Richards Bay Coal Ter ...
Friday, 16 April 10
COAL INDIA SELECTS MERCHANT BANKERS TO ACQUIRE OVERSEAS ASSETS -THE HINDU
An investment of about $1.8 billion is expected to be made in these deals
The Hindu reported that, Bank of America-Merill Lynch, Royal Bank of Sc ...
Thursday, 15 April 10
MAJOR THERMAL COAL CONTRACT AT 40% HIGHER PRICE THAN LAST YEAR - BUSINESS STANDARD
Business-Standard reported that, India is expected to import nearly 60 million tonnes of thermal coal this year.
After coking coal and iron ...
Thursday, 15 April 10
RICHARDS BAY ROUNDS BACK TO INDIA SUPRAS WERE FIXED AT MID 20'S
Handy
The BSI remains in a positive momentum and the Atlantic remains unchanged from last week. Fronthaul grain is active which is keeping ballast ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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