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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Wednesday, 21 April 10
INDONESIA SHIPPED 13.24 PERCENT MORE COAL IN MARCH THAN A MONTH EARLIER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27,615,191 MT of coal in March 2010, compare to 24.38 million tons in January and ...
Tuesday, 20 April 10
INDO HARUM ENERGY WINS US$200MN LOAN PLEDGE FROM BANK SYNDICATE
Indonesian coal producer PT Harum Energy has secured a loan commitment of US$200 million from a syndicate of six banks.
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi ...
Tuesday, 20 April 10
PACIFIC SUPRA MARKET WAS STILL SOFTENING - BRS
A modest increase in dry bulk rates this week with activity picking up in the middle of the week. Panamax rates remain above the Capes, and there wa ...
Monday, 19 April 10
IS CHINA TO SUFFER NEW COAL SUPPLY SHORTAGE IN 2010? - XINHUA
Is China likely to suffer a new coal supply shortage in 2010? It's a question haunting many Chinese market analysts now. After a string of several ...
Monday, 19 April 10
WHITE ENERGY BUYS SA COAL - ABC NET
ABC Net reported that, South Australian Coal Limited is being bought by the New South Wales company White Energy.
Shareholders will get a combine ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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