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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Tuesday, 27 April 10
S.KOREA EWP SEEKS 0.520 MILLION TONS OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea East West Power Company has called for term bids for supply of Sub-bituminous Coal for Dangjin Thermal Power Pla ...
Monday, 26 April 10
COAL INDIA NEARS PORT DEAL WITH VIZAG STEEL - DNA
DNA India reported that, Coal India Ltd (CIL), the country’s largest coal producer, is close to signing a deal to acquire space at Vizag Steel ...
Sunday, 25 April 10
THE WAITING AT INDIAN PORTS FOR COAL VESSELS WAS QUITE NORMAL - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The BDI remained unchanged this week and all other sectors also the change was not much.
The cape index continued to move up and wa ...
Saturday, 24 April 10
NTPC TO BUY COAL MINES IN KAZAKHSTAN - TELEGRAPH INDIA
Telegraph India reported that, NTPC Ltd plans to acquire coal mines and operate two thermal power plants in Kazakhstan.
“We are exploring t ...
Saturday, 24 April 10
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOUBLE IN MARCH
China's General Administration of Customs said that the country imported 15.22 million tons of coal last month, more than double the amount it impo ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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