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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Wednesday, 06 January 10
BUMI SHARES UP AS OVERALL PERFORMANCE BEATS PREDICTIONS
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter PT Bumi Resources saw its shares jump 10 percent to Rp 2,675 ($29 US cents) on Tuesday after the com ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
INDIA MAY HAVE BECOME TOP BUYER OF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL
India may have overtaken Europe for the first time as the biggest purchaser of South African coal in 2009, according to Raymond Chirwa, Richards Bay ...
Wednesday, 06 January 10
COAL PEAK RECEDES INTO THE FAR DISTANCE
COALspot.com (German): Coal will be available to mankind as an energy source for the next 120 years.
The German Coal Importer Association has ca ...
Tuesday, 05 January 10
SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED QUIET OVER THE LAST 10 DAYS BRS - DRY BULK
Despite a damp end to the year for bulk rates, shipping has weathered the storm far better than was initially expected in the wake of the financ ...
Tuesday, 05 January 10
WINTER WEATHER SPIKES COAL PRICES - CHINA UPDATE
Cold weather is driving coal prices higher and will lend the advantage in annual negotiations to suppliers, analysts said, predicting that the risin ...
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Showing 6116 to 6120 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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