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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Sunday, 17 January 10
THE FUTURES FOR THREE YEARS (2010 - 2012) FIRMED UP - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market was a bit mixed with BDI up by about 159 points and closed at 3,299 points.
BDI
The cape index cont ...
Sunday, 17 January 10
NTPC TO DOUBLE CAPACITY BY 2017
NTPC, which will launch its follow-on public offer on February 3, plans to more than double its generating capacity to over 70,000 mega watts by 201 ...
Saturday, 16 January 10
HANDY CONTINUED FIRM CONDITIONS FOR MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
HANDY
Continued firm conditions for the Handymax / Smax market in the Atlantic with the BSI having a continued upwards momentum. US$ 45,000 ac ...
Friday, 15 January 10
INDONESIA COAL - HEAVY RAINS HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON COAL OUTPUT
Coal shipments from Indonesia's main coal-producing area are unlikely to be hit by heavy rains during January-February as many miners are prepared ...
Friday, 15 January 10
GOVT BRINGS IN DOMESTIC COAL MARKET OBLIGATION
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has issued a ministerial decree requiring producers of coal and other minerals to allocate a proportion ...
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Showing 6081 to 6085 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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