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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Thursday, 28 January 10
COAL - VIETNAM / TRADE
Vietnam expects to turn into a coal importer within three years, spurred by an industrial boom and rising power consumption, a senior executive with ...
Thursday, 28 January 10
JAPAN STEELMAKERS OPPOSE QUARTERLY COAL CONTRACTS
Japanese steelmakers oppose miner BHP Billiton's attempt to switch to quarterly contracts from annual deals for supplying coal, as the change would ...
Thursday, 28 January 10
BHP MAY SELL 25% STAKE IN INDONESIAN COAL PROJECT
BHP Billiton Ltd. plans to sell only a 25 percent stake in a coal project in Indonesia as it wants to retain control of the asset, said Indra Dianna ...
Thursday, 28 January 10
TRANSNET ASPIRES TO 81MT/Y COAL EXPORT CAPACITY
South African State-owned rail transport enterprise Transnet wants to increase coal-line rail capacity to 81-million tons a year as part of its Quan ...
Wednesday, 27 January 10
ASIA'S 2010 STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO REACH 460 MLN T
* China to import up to 100 mln T of steam coal in 2010
* China, India seen investing in southern Africa assets
Asian imports of steam coal will ...
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Showing 6046 to 6050 news of total 6871 |
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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