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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Monday, 25 January 10
MINING GROUPS MAY SEEK JUDICIAL REVIEW OF 2009 LAW
Indonesia’s mining associations said on Wednesday that they planned to seek a judicial review of the 2009 Mining Law this year if they are una ...
Monday, 25 January 10
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT TO ISSUE REGULATION FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF MINERAL AND COAL MINING BUSINESS ACTIVITIES LAW NO.4 / 2009 SOON
COALspot.com (Indonesia): The government regulation concerning implementation of mineral and coal mining business activities Law no.4 / 2009 is expe ...
Monday, 25 January 10
DUQM IWPP'S COAL REQUIREMENTS PROJECTED AT 3MT PER YEAR
Oman's first coal-fired Independent Water and Power Project (IWPP) planned at Duqm is envisaged to have a feedstock requirement of around 3 million ...
Monday, 25 January 10
THE FUTURES FOR CAPE, PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX FOR THREE YEARS (2010 - 2012) WAS AT AROUND US$ 32,000, US$ 20,000 AND US$ 17,000 PER DAY RESPECTIVELY
COALspot.com ( Singapore): The freight market remained flat this week the market slight soft.
BDI INDEX
The BDI was down by 95 points and closed ...
Saturday, 23 January 10
COAL CAMARADERIE
Union coal minister Shriprakash Jaiswal feels Asian countries should join hands in developing minerals, particularly coal.
At the third Asian Min ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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