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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Saturday, 30 January 10
THE ECI / CHINA (S7) ROUTE SOFTENED BY $ 5,736 AND CLOSED AT $ 27,360 PER DAY - VISTAAR SHIPPING
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market continued to soften this week probably in anticipation of Chinese New year holidays.
BDI INDEX
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Saturday, 30 January 10
INDONESIA TO CONSTRUCT 93 POWER PLANTS IN 2ND PROJECT
The government has announced its list of 93 power plants to be built under the second 10,000-megawatt (MW) power generation scheme.
"With th ...
Saturday, 30 January 10
COAL FIRMS TO KEEP NATION IN THE BLACK
Some Indonesian coal mining companies on Friday pledged to allocate a greater share of their production this year to meet domestic market obligation ...
Friday, 29 January 10
INDIA STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DOUBLE, BOOST SOUTH AFRICA
* SAfrica seen shipping 75 pct of its coal to Asia in 2010
* Logistics woes hamper SAfrica exports, India imports
India's steam coal imports ar ...
Thursday, 28 January 10
THE IRON ORE EXPORTS FROM INDIA TO CHINA ARE DOWN AND THE RATES DROPPED
HANDY
The BSI has continued its downward trend confirming the softening of the Atlantic since the previous week and reflecting a correction of the ...
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Showing 6041 to 6045 news of total 6871 |
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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