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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Wednesday, 31 March 10
COAL INDIA MULLS JOINT VENTURE WITH RIO TINTO AND PEABODY - DNA
DNA reported that, Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has finalised two key contenders for its international joint venture (JV) in Australian and US each. The co ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL MODERATELY FALLING, BUT POSITIVE SIGNS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The irregularities of the current dry bulk market have been more than evident in the fact that panamax vessels today earn more than their larger cap ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
INDIKA ENERGYS PROFIT HIT BY FOREX LOSS AND CABOTAGE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reportd that, PT Indika Energy posted a 30 percent drop in 2009 net profit due to a foreign exchange loss and impairment of intang ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
ITMG TO UP COAL OUTPUT DESPITE PERMIT PROBLEMS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the country’s third largest coal producer PT Indo Tambang Raya Megah (ITMG) said it can raise output although ...
Tuesday, 30 March 10
ANALYST SEES BDI LIFT, SUGGESTS DRY BULK SHORT SQUEEZE
Analysts at Credit Suisse are bullish on Diana and see a potential short squeeze elsewhere in the sector. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- an industry ...
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Showing 5911 to 5915 news of total 6871 |
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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