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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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