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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Australian Coal Association
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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