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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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