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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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