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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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