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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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