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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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