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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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