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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
 Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more than 60 percent from their peaks in 2022, driven by soft economic activity and lower gas prices, which negatively affected demand for coal in the power sector. This significant drop has been bolstered by robust supply and gradually increasing penetration of renewable electricity. Nonetheless, prices remain well above their 2015-19 average. A sharp decline in prices has already unfolded in 2024, compared to the 2023 average, with further reductions anticipated in 2025 as renewable power generation meets rising electricity demand. Major risks to this outlook include stronger-than-expected growth in China's power output and hydropower shortfalls.
Global consumption hits a record high. In 2023, coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 120 million tons (1.4 percent) compared to 2022. However, demand growth decelerated due to weak global economic activity, high penetration of renewable electricity, and lower natural gas prices. In the United States and the European Union, demand fell by an estimated 100 million tons each, while it rose by approximately 220 million tons in China and 100 million tons in India. The global demand shift towards Asia persisted in 2023, with China and India currently accounting for 70 percent of total consumption.
Global coal production remains robust. Production is estimated to have increased by about 150 million tons (Mmt) in 2023. In India, output rose by approximately 100 Mmt, while China's production grew by about 50 Mmt, partly due to enhanced safety measures in domestic mines. Conversely, production in the United States and the European Union declined by roughly 50 Mmt and 70 Mmt, respectively. In Australia, production stagnated due to labor shortages and sluggish exports to China, which have not fully recovered after China lifted its ban on Australian imports in January 2023, originally imposed in 2021.
Global trade reaches record highs. In 2023, global coal trade is estimated to have reached a record high, increasing by 100 Mmt. The growth was largely driven by a 150 Mmt rise in Chinese imports, as domestic production could not keep pace with growing consumption. Reflecting these consumption patterns, the Asia Pacific region accounted for approximately 80 percent of global coal imports. In the meantime, the European Union has continued to substitute exports from Russia by increasing trade with several commercial partners including the Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States.
Coal prices are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2024 and a further 12 percent in 2025. Upside risks to the coal price outlook includes higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption and various factors that could lower renewable electricity production, such as low rainfall or light wind conditions. Downside risks include ample supply and weaker-than-expected global growth. The baseline assumption that China’s coal demand peaked in 2023 may be challenged by stronger-than-expected growth in power generation, as seen in 2021, or shortfalls in output from hydropower, as in 2023. Additionally, new coal mines are under development in China, and about 110 GW of coal plants were approved in 2023, indicating that domestic coal consumption could continue to rise. Production data covering 2024Q1 indicate that coal demand in the power sector in China will increase in 2024 unless renewable generation booms over the summer months or demand for electricity decreases.
By Paolo Agnolucci & Kaltrina Temaj
World Bank
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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