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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
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Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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