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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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