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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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