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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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