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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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