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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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