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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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