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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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