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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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