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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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