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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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