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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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