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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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