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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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