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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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