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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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