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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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