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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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