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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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