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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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