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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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