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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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