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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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