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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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