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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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