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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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