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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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