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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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