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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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