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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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