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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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